Monthly Archives: July 2008

Wall Street’s Strange Little Irony

Which party is better for the U.S. stock market? The answer to this question may surprise some people. Studies consistently show that the stock market actually performs better under Democratic presidencies than Republican.

I know what you’re thinking. Conventional wisdom says that Republican presidents are preferred by big money donors on Wall Street. But evidence consistently suggests otherwise and investment professionals in the business of making money should re-think this view. According to a recent analysis by Ned Davis Research, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) returned 7.2% during Democratic administrations compared to just 3.6% under Republican presidents. In fact, several other studies have also reached this conclusion. For example, a 2003 study by two finance professors at UCLA titled “The Presidential Puzzle: Political Cycles and the Stock Market” also found that the the stock market performs better and tends to be less volatile when Democrats are in power (1896 through 2001).

These results partially explain why Wall Street firms have increased their political giving to the DNC in recent years and both Obama and Clinton have strong ties to the financial community.

Chrysler, Tata, Fiat – A Ménage à Trois?

According to Reuters, Chrysler is talking with India’s Tata Motors and Italy’s Fiat, as it seeks to raise cash and open doors to faster-growing markets outside the U.S. Chrysler has been in discussions with Tata about arrangements to sell its Jeep Wrangler SUV in India and possibly other Asian markets. In addition, Chrysler has been talking to Fiat about leasing Chrysler production capacity in North America and cooperating in retail distribution in the U.S. market. This scenario could allow Fiat to return to the world’s largest auto market, while allowing Chrysler to cut costs at a time when sales are down and it faces mounting pressure to shore up cash.

Gerry Meyers, a professor at the University of Michigan business school and chief executive of American Motors when it owned Jeep in the early 1980s, said it was clear that Chrysler needed international partners. "In my mind, they’re clearly under a financial strain. It may even be a liquidity strain. There are a lot of questions floating around about how much longer Chrysler can go on with problems like this," he said.

Chrysler lost $1.6 billion in 2007. On Tuesday Fitch Ratings downgraded Chrysler, warning that the automaker could run below the "minimum required levels" of cash to finance operations by the second half of 2009 if industry-wide sales remain flat or worsen.

Fiat and Tata already have a partnership. Fiat agreed this month to handle the financing in Europe for Tata’s Jaguar and Land Rover brands, while Tata said it was open to Fiat selling its Nano.

On the same day that the story above appeared in Reuters, BBC News reported that Tata has seen net profits fall 30% due to high material costs and losses from changes in foreign exchange rates.

Two Unions at Boeing Host Investor Forum

Today, the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers (IAM) and the Society of Professional Engineering Employees in Aerospace (SPEEA) – in conjunction with the AFL-CIO’s Office of Investment – hosted an investor forum to provide an update regarding their upcoming negotiations with The Boeing Company. Together, the IAM and SPEEA represent over 50,000 employees at Boeing. In total, over fifty Wall Street analysts, investment managers and pension funds were represented on the call.

David White, Assistant Director of Strategic Resources at the Machinists, cautioned the company from taking a hard-line stance in this year’s bargaining. “This round of negotiations is shaping up to be particularly critical for the future direction of Boeing,” he warned. “Given the myriad of issues currently facing the Dreamliner program, the company cannot afford a work stoppage right now.” Mr. White pointed out that three of the last four contract cycles resulted in a major strike at Boeing. “Our members have delivered for management. Now its time for Mr. McNerney and his executive team to acknowledge this contribution,” he said.

In preparation for the negotiations, the two unions have been raising concerns among institutional investors regarding the company’s failing global supplier business model and the coming demographic shift in its workforce. “If not proactively addressed by management in short-order, these two issues could pose serious risk for investors and will prevent the company from maximizing shareholder value in the long-term,” said Stan Sorscher, research director at SPEEA.

To hear a replay of the hour-long forum, call 1-800-475-6701, passcode: 955367.

Telenor Accepts Responsibility in Bangladesh

Telenor in BangladeshIt’s not often that we give a thumbs up to a public company with respect to their human rights practices. So here is an interesting exception: Telenor.

The company was founded in 1855 in Norway and has become the leading telecommunications company in that country. In may of 2008, A Danish TV documentary broadcast revealed unacceptable working conditions, pollution and underage labour at the facilities of suppliers to Grameenphone in Bangladesh. In response, the company has drawn up guidelines to ensure its corporate responsibility and that its operations are run in accordance with with ethical standards. After having been informed about the unacceptable conditions, Telenor immediately initiated measures to ensure that required standards are adhered to. Telenor has a 62 per cent stake in Grameenphone. The company has posted the following statement on its web site:

Actions taken in Bangladesh

Immediately after having been informed about these unacceptable conditions, an investigation was initiated by Grameenphone and Telenor. The following steps have been taken:

1. Grameenphone (GP) and Telenor have carried out inspections at the factory premises to the four suppliers appearing in the film, and one additional supplier not mentioned in the film

2. All GP’s suppliers have been requested to ‘show cause’ (i.e. from a legal point of view confirm) that conditions are in accordance with standards specified in the contracts

3. GP’s business connections with vendor Mizan Hatim Engineering have been terminated after our inspections revealed that a boy below the age-limit set for this specific industry was working on the facilities. This supplier failed to show the required willingness to cooperate and implement changes to ensure that activities are performed safely and in line with applicable standards. Clarification of the relationship with the supplier Mizam Hatim

4. Working conditions at the facilities of the four remaining suppliers of mobile antenna towers to Grameenphone will be subject to thorough review. Any required improvements relating to manufacturing or working conditions will be clarified. In addition to this, the right to undertake unannounced inspections is emphasised

5. Telenor is currently reviewing GP’s follow-up and control routines with the aim of implementing required improvements

6. Det Norske Veritas (DNV) has been commissioned to assess and provide counsel relating to working conditions and production standards at the relevant suppliers’ facilities.
Download DNV report (PDF)

7. A review of all GP contracts with suppliers is also underway to ensure that other supplier groups comply with existing agreements

Initiated measures for the whole group

Telenor has extended its cooperation with Det Norske Veritas as an advisor to perform mapping and review of HSE standards at relevant supplier to group companies in other markets where Telenor has operations

Based on the results of these reviews, Telenor will take steps to implement relevant initiatives in respect of individual suppliers, framework agreements and follow up procedures

We applaud Telenor for stepping up and taking responsibility for this problem and addressing the issues quickly and in a responsible manner.

Zimbabwe Will Fall: It's the Economy Stupid!

In today’s BBC News Africa, there is an interesting article about the economic crisis in ZImbabwe and its ultimate impact it will have on the Mugabe government. It points out that with the inflation rate in Zimbabwe at 15 Million percent, 256 Billion Zimbabwe dollars gets you a loaf of bread. Zillionaires are starving in Zimbabwe!

I am reminded of the story about Al Capone, the American mobster who was pursued by the authorities for years for his crimes. What eventually did Capone in was tax fraud, an economic crime, not the flashy stuff of criminal masterminds. The parallel to Robert Mugabe is important. While the public and government leaders around the world wail about the sham elections, human rights abuse, et cetera, what will likely do Mugabe in will be his gross abuse of the economy. His henchmen (the army and police forces) are facing the same crisis as ordinary Zimbabweans. Supporters of all kinds of the ZANU PF can’t sustain their political zeal when they can’t buy a quart of milk for anything less than 500 Billion dollars.

The only remaining thread of hope for the elite in power is the stolen proceeds that can sustain them. If economic sanctions close off this last source of revenue and the regime is allowed to exit somewhat intact, then there is some hope for a post-Mugabe era in Zimbabwe.