The west African nation of Guinea is facing a crisis that is precipitated by its own natural wealth and sustained, in part, by economic interests out for a piece of the action. Whether the people of Guinea can survive the current crisis remains uncertain. In a post on the International Crisis Group blog today, Richard Moncrieff notes that this problem has become acute as events in recent weeks make clear.
On September 28th of this year, the West African country Guinea was the scene of an anti government demonstration dissolved by the government of Captain Mousa Dadis Camara. The demonstrators were protesting the decision of Captain Camara to run for President in the January 2010 elections. NowPublic
Many of the demonstrators also held placards which stated “Army out of power”.The response of the government was to use tear gas, batons, and live ammunition with the result of being a reported 157 people killed in which 50,000 people participated in the demonstration.
Then earlier this month, Captain Camara was flown to Morocco for treatment after he was shot by his top aide, fuelling worries of a power vacuum. General Sekouba Konate, Guinea’s vice-president and defence minister, became the country’s de facto leader after returning from Lebanon early on Saturday.
Whatever the immediate aftermath of the shooting of junta leader Moussa Dadis Camara, this latest spate of violence clearly demonstrates the dangers of military rule for Guinea, and the sub-region. ICG
Part of what happened is clear enough. Certain members of the presidential guard, who were involved in the massacres of 28 September, obviously felt threatened by the United Nations commission of inquiry, which was wrapping up its first field investigation into those killings. Toumba Diakite, the leading red beret who shot Dadis Camara, probably feared being made to carry the can.
The core members of the military junta are violent and volatile thugs, who drink to excess and roam the streets of the capital, Conakry, armed to the teeth. And it is not the first incident of this sort. In early October, another argument about responsibility for the 28 September events ended with shots being fired in the main military camp.
Guinea has had a history of authoritarian rule since gaining its independence from France in 1958. Lansana Conte came to power in 1984 when the military seized the government after the death of the first president, Sekou Toure. Guinea did not hold democratic elections until 1993 when Gen. Conte was elected president of the civilian government. He was reelected in 1998 and again in 2003, though all the polls were marred by irregularities. History repeated itself in December 2008 when following President Conte’s death, Capt. Moussa Dadis Camara led a military coup, seizing power and suspending the constitution as well as political and union activity. Guinea has maintained some semblance of internal stability despite spillover effects from conflict in Sierra Leone and Liberia. As those countries have rebuilt, however, Guinea’s own vulnerability to political and economic crisis has increased. Declining economic conditions and popular dissatisfaction with corruption and bad governance prompted two massive strikes in 2006, and a third nationwide strike in early 2007. CIA World Factbook
Guinea possesses major mineral, hydropower, and agricultural resources, yet remains an underdeveloped nation. The country has almost half of the world’s bauxite reserves. The mining sector accounts for more than 70% of exports. However, long-run improvements in government fiscal arrangements, literacy, and the legal framework are needed if the country is to move out of poverty.
Investor confidence has been sapped by rampant corruption, a lack of electricity and other infrastructure, a lack of skilled workers, and the political uncertainty because of the death of President Conte in December 2008.
Guinea is trying to reengage with the IMF and World Bank, which cut off most assistance in 2003, and is working closely with technical advisers from the U.S. Treasury Department, the World Bank and IMF, seeking to return to a fully funded program. Growth rose slightly in 2006-08, primarily due to increases in global demand and commodity prices on world markets, but the standard of living fell. The Guinea franc depreciated sharply as the prices for basic necessities like food and fuel rose beyond the reach of most Guineans. Dissatisfaction with economic conditions prompted nationwide strikes in February and June 2006.
There are two likely outcomes to the situation in the short term, and neither looks good. If Dadis Camara pulls through and retains control of the situation, he could become more paranoid and his clampdown on civil society and human rights activists could harden. On the other hand, if he loses control there are four or five strong men ready to take over, and each will probably be prepared to fight for power.
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